MyDD :: John McCain's Path to Victory

John McCain's Path to Victory

by BishopRook, Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:04:53 PM EST

(Crossposted at <REDACTED>)

Let's be serious for a moment.

What is John McCain's path to victory? Does he even have one? If you look at Pollster.com's state of the race, you'll see that the numbers currently stand at 260 EVs for Obama, 179 for McCain, and 99 tossup. In order to win the election, a candidate must have at least 270 electoral votes. In other words, out of the 99 tossup EVs, Obama needs 10, while McCain needs 91.

It isn't completely hopeless for John McCain, though. Let's examine how he might win this election.

First, let's lay down a ground rule. We're trying to figure out how McCain can get to 270--for the sake of this exercise, presume that a tie favors Obama. It's rather more complicated than that, but since 270 is the measuring stick consistently applied to Obama, we'll apply it equally to McCain.

Now, there are four states that would singlehandedly win Obama the election. Those are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio. Thus:

STEP 1: John McCain must win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio.

There is also one state that would singlehandedly get Obama to 269, which would dash McCain's chances for 270, namely Colorado. So:

STEP 2: John McCain must win Colorado.

Presuming victories in all of these states, the race would stand at 263 for McCain, 260 for Obama, with 15 up for grabs. McCain still needs to scrounge up 7 EVs--meaning he has to win either New Hampshire or Nevada, or he cannot get to 270. Therefore:

STEP 3: John McCain must win either New Hampshire or Nevada.

Let's be generous and give McCain the larger of the two states, Nevada. He now has 268 EVs to Obama's 260--ever so close! Any one of the remaining states will do. Finally:

STEP 4: John McCain must win one of Montana, North Dakota, or New Hampshire.

So as we can see, things aren't hopeless for John McCain. Why, he has several paths to victory:

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Montana
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, Montana
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Dakota

This is obviously great news for John McCain. Especially when you compare it to Obama's measly list of paths to victory:

Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado, Montana
Colorado, North Dakota
Colorado, New Hampshire
Colorado, Nevada
Nevada, New Hampshire, Montana
Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota
Nevada, Montana, North Dakota
New Hampshire, Montana, North Dakota

...wait, what was the point I was trying to make again? You kids get off my lawn!

Tags: John McCain, election 2008, electoral college (all tags)

Permalink :: 52 Comments :: Post a Comment

Uh-oh... (2.00 / 10)

Jerome ain't gonna like this.....

Nice knowing ya Rook!

(rec'd)

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:13:24 PM EST

Re: Uh-oh... (2.00 / 6)

Thanks. Great music taste BTW.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Uh-oh... (2.00 / 1)

Thanks.

I just saw Jakob Dylan at Bumpershoot in Seattle here over labor day weekend.

He was absolutely riveting....My girlfriend was mostly pushing me to see him, I knew he would be good, but I was blown completely away!

The older he gets, the more he sounds like his old man.

And his last album-His lyrics are so crisp and clean. What a talent.

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:20:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Uh-oh... (none / 0)

Indeed he does sound like his dad. Not sure he'd consider that a compliment though, he's got some family issues. :P

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:22:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Uh-oh... (none / 0)

Not surprising. Hard to be the son of a legend I would guess.

But, really, the crowd I was in was a mix of boomers and millenials, and I don't think the 30 and down crowd cares as much about his father as we do?

But, no doubt, the apple didn't fall far from the tree. He got that ability to push those words together from someplace

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:28:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Uh-oh... (none / 0)

Great post. Tipped and recced. :)

by Yalin on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 01:53:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 6)

NO NO NO. Obama's going to LOSE and LOSE BIG.

You're forgetting the Bradley effect, which means that anywhere that LEANS Obama is, in fact, a swing state, and all those tossups might as well be Utah. He'll be fighting over Oregon and Michigan. And forget New Mexico, because Hispanics won't vote for a black man. And Palin puts Minnesota and Wisconsin into play because, well, her accent kinda sounds like theirs.

....

Seriously, though, Obama's in good shape and has been for . . . well . . . pretty much the whole campaign. Palin opens the door a little more in Florida, though I guess we're going to lose Alaska, now. Damn.

by EvilAsh on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:21:17 PM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 2)

I know, I was sort of looking forward to winning Alaska... Ah well. At least Begich is going to totally clean house.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not so sure about FL (2.00 / 1)

Her extremist views won't play so well in the older Jewish communities who might have been inclined to vote for McSame. If anything her gains are offset by her losses. Oh, and Hillary is on her way to make sure.

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:54:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not so sure about FL (none / 0)

I absolutely agree. I have a little trouble with the people who seem kinda smug about the idea that Hillary shouldn't help Obama with Palin.
The truth is, even if Hillary WEREN'T a dedicated democrat who believes 99.9 percent of the things that Obama believes in, it's in her own self-interest to do everything she can to get Obama elected.
One, Palin is trying to assume Hillary's mantle. If I were Hillary in that situation, I'd be pissed. Super-pissed. Who the f**k does this woman think she is to presume that she has a right to, with NO work, all that Hillary spent AT LEAST 18 months building (if not 20 or more YEARS).
Two, if Hillary wants a shot at 2012 (if Obama loses) she'd better do everything humanly possible to help him. After such a long and bitter primary, there is STILL way too much crap about Hillary's lack of support for Obama. (and it is crap. Hence, the asshat olympics.) If there is any indication that she held back, she'd be hurt BADLY in four years.
Regardless of her personal feelings (which must still be stinging) she absolutely will do everything the Obama campaign asks of her. Because she is a professional. Because she is a democrat. And because she believes her own words, "No way, no how, no McCain."

by EvilAsh on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 05:30:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 4)

Nothing on Sarah Qualin?

Heh.

Great breakdown Bishop.

Highly rec'd.

Welcome to a landslide WITH white working class, latinos, women and holding on sweeties!!!

by spacemanspiff on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:22:22 PM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 2)

I'm excited about Colorado. That's a place where a bigass ground game might make a difference.

by MeganLocke on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:31:34 PM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (none / 0)

I think Palin fires up the base, and there's a lot of base in Colorado. On the other hand, the current version of McCain (plus Palin) doesn't seem to have much outreach to Hispanics. There are a fair number of Hispanics.

I'm not sure Colorado moves a lot, and that favors Obama.

Wild card: how many Mormons are 1) angry at the way Romney was treated and/or 2) distrustful of Evangelicans (while a lot of values are similar, it's commonly perceived that Evangelicals really don't like Mormons very much and will turn on them given a chance). If Mormons sit this one out in numbers it very much changes the map in the west.

No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!

by Texas Gray Wolf on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (none / 0)

I'm Mormon (active, happy, in good standing with the Church, and currently the Sunday School teacher), so I think I can soeak to this with some authority.

I am an enthusiastic Obama supporter and while there are many of us, we are still a minority (though a growing one) This is sure, though: Latter-day Saints hate McCain. As a result, many people I know simply won't vote for him. Sarah Palin does nothing to help this, since she is ridiculous.

So this election is the hardest ever for most of my fellow Saints. Many will hold their nose and pull the lever for McCain (enough that he can count on their vote), but there's no real incentive to get them to the polls in the first place.

A HUGE number of Mormons are flirting with the Libertarian party. Many will write in Ron Paul or vote directly for Bob Barr.

Bottom line, for Mormons this election is between John McCain and Not John McCain - whether that means voting for Obama, a third party, or just staying home.

I think I have my in-laws convinced to vote for Obama. And THAT is amazing.

by not Brit on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 11:32:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 1)

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_pri nt/SB121867218820238903.html

I'm going in October to my hometown in Western Colorado (Mesa County) to be a part of the ground game and anyone who wants to help out is more than welcome. My parents can put up at least two more people and I know we could find more housing than that.

Let me know jeffvlarson at mac dot com.

$439Billion spent on the US Military and still no universal health care.

by jlars on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:24:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Looking inside the numbers (2.00 / 1)

Old man yells at cloud.

Thanks for the link. I agree that the numbers do look promising, especially when you get into the spreads among individual states. Certainly, I'd be more comfortable with larger data sets, but the methodology is sound.

Just watch out for the cross correlation between seemingly like states and bootstrapping some of the past polls for the trending.

I would discount any attempt of trend analysis on the basis of the data provided especially with the Palin variable, but it seems that the threshold of people going out to vote AGAINST Obama has been overcome. These look like sound fundamentals, and that Dems do better when and where they have public events, unlike Repubs.

But don't double down against the stupid, negative mendacious appeal of the 'Publicans.

As Chuckie T. (MSNBC) says: "it's all about the numbers"

I might be crazy... but are you seeing what I'm seeing?

by mydailydrunk on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:40:04 PM EST

Good analysis, but I disagree (2.00 / 2)

I prefer the RealClearPolitics map. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ maps/obama_vs_mccain/

They have Obama 238, McCain 174, and 126 for tossup.

The tossup states are: NV, NM, CO, VA, NC, MI, NH, FL, OH, IN.

I see NM, MI, CO going for Obama at the moment.

I see NV, VA, NC, NH, FL, OH, IN going for McCain at the moment.

Here's the crazy thing. That would mean a 269-269 tie. Could you imagine how insane that scenario would be. :/

The key states to me are VA, CO, FL, OH because I think those could switch to either person and all carry a significant amount of electorals.

by Chelsea in 2020 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:47:21 PM EST

Re: Good analysis, but I disagree (2.00 / 2)

NH is not going to go for McCain.

Sarah Palin doesn't help there IMHO.

I'm thinking, in the past elections, the Republican GOTV infrastructure has killed us.

I think Axelrod is going to match that, as long as we keep him flushed with money.

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:54:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good analysis, but I disagree (none / 0)

Perhaps, but I think it's too early to tell how Palin changes these state poll numbers. She IS giving McCain a bounce, but the question is where. At the very least I think she will help the GOP hold on to most, if not all of the traditionally Red states. OH/FL may determine it all....yet again.

by Chelsea in 2020 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 08:14:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good analysis, but I disagree (none / 0)

My feeling (oft repeated, at this point) is that McCain/Palin have put Florida back up for grabs. This is based on the following:

1) Failure to appeal to non-Cuban Hispanics. It's been well documented that Obama is running very well among this group. The Republican convention had zero outreach to anyone not white. Clinton's involvement is important but not critical here; she can and will help, but Obama's already running really well here.

2) Cuban Hispanics tend to vote on Cuba, and secondly on foreign policy issues. McCain has been perceived as the better candidate here, but Palin may throw a major monkey wrench into that. Too early to tell, but it raises questions both about McCain's judgment and what policies you get if Palin should become President.

3) The Jewish vote. Rightly or wrongly (jury is still out), Palin has been quickly hit with two charges: she supported Pat Buchanan, and she was present at a Jews For Jesus presentation very recently. Both of these could be overcome; the problem is that Palin isn't talking. This presents a nightmare scenario: the allegations will always travel faster than the denial, but there's time for a denial to work. However Palin isn't answering questions, so there will be no denial in a plausible form. Lacking that, the charges settle in. Pretty soon it'll be too late for a plausible denial. Palin becomes a liability in Florida (she likely already is, hence the campaign announcing that she was going there, then changing their mind a couple days later). McCain has to tread carefully because he could easily get hit with questions of the form "Why did you select an anti-Semitic VP?"; one loses by that question even being asked. Selecting Palin as an alternative to Lieberman doubles the impact here. Finally, the same questions as in 2) apply: while McCain is commonly perceived as strong on Israel, does anyone know Palin's view? Or even whether she really understands the issues at all?

It could be that a combination of surrogates and media buys will keep Florida on the McCain side, but at this point I'd say it's pretty much a tossup, where a week ago I'd have given it 2:1 odds to go McCain.

No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!

by Texas Gray Wolf on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good analysis, but I disagree (2.00 / 2)

A Florida win would put Obama into the White House, I don't see McCain making up a loss down there. Unfortunately, I see McCain winning it. Lieberman is a key in this state because he will keep the jewish vote with McCain, they know Joe will get a spot in McCain's administration. Obama has also had issues conecting with this group, so I doubt any major shifts are coming. OH & CO are better targets for Barack.

by Chelsea in 2020 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:03:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good analysis, but I disagree (2.00 / 1)

I'm not sure I agree with this. I think some of the "difficulty" has been overplayed, and I think the negatives of an association with Buchanan and Jews For Jesus, plus the Evangelical right, can't be underestimated. Lieberman is more of a wash; yes, he'd probably get a spot in a McCain administration, but at the same time, it's going to hurt McCain that Lieberman was put aside for Palin, especially with the two subtexts (experience vs inexperience; Jew vs Evangelical Christian).

My wife (who is Jewish) also reminds me that many, many Jewish people identify with community organizers, and the attacks on community organizers will play very poorly among the Jewish community.

I think Florida's firmly in play. I certainly wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket -- but the problem for the Republicans is that they have to win every single battleground state.

No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!

by Texas Gray Wolf on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:04:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sarah Palin! (2.00 / 2)

Excuse me. I just wanted to give this Palin-free thread some well deserved traction.

See how Saxby Chambliss is helping you!

by Spiffarino on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 07:54:10 PM EST

Re: Sarah Palin! (none / 0)

Hey Dude.

by AntiStipes on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:58:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I envision a... (2.00 / 1)

scorch and burn 'angry left' mania bashing with a dash of maverick and a kick of POW is his meal ticket to win core demographic of red blooded evangelical straight country bumpkin deer hunting poor middle class white folksy small town charm family values drill now earth is flat crowd

forgot,,,9/11

by optimusprime on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 08:01:16 PM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 1)

Just to remind everyone, 95% of the polling for these numbers was done pre-convention, so some of the states may be shifting here and there as new numbers come in and the paths to victory may change somewhat.

So far this summer, the toss-ups have been leaning in proportion to the national polls, and I'm curious to see what the Biden and Palin picks have done to specific segments of the population, particularly in the West and in Florida.

Still, the general principle will hold that McCain has to pretty much run the table to win, and Obama has to get just one or two toss-ups to tip his direction.

by indythink on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 08:14:46 PM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (none / 0)

and hold PA. Obama must win PA. See my comment below on why this is not in the bag yet

Late Night Pundit

by dham340 on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:52:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 2)

Pretty sure NH is going to break for Obama by at least 5%. Despite McCain's unique strength in the state, it has shifted pretty hard against Republicans and unless Obama actually loses the popular vote nationwide by a significant amount, I don't see him losing New Hampshire. Put that one in the blue column, along with Iowa, New Mexico, and all the other Kerry states, and we've got 264.

If we give Obama New Hampshire, suddenly all he needs is one of the following: Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, or Virginia to get to 270 (or 269 in the case of Nevada). Plus McCain has to watch out for Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, a couple congressional districts in Nebraska, and even North Dakota. I'm pretty sure by the end of this that Obama's ground game will even force McCain to devote at least a bit of resources to West Virginia and Georgia.

McCain came into the election looking pretty powerful, polling well in states like Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and even Massachusetts. They've all slipped right through his fingers. We're in a stronger position however you look at it.

by Skaje on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 09:04:02 PM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (none / 0)

While it is essential that Obama win, I'm not satisfied with that. I want Obama to have a mandate and long coattails. I'll be a lot happier when I start to see Obama getting >300 or better >325 EVs.

by PghArch on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 09:55:40 PM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 2)

Palin may help with some working class, rural voters in Ohio, and PA, but, in all likelihood, those people were probably not voting for Obama anyway.

Here's where Palin is going to hurt, though -

Florida - she may single-handedly turn Florida blue, because of her association with anti-semitism. And I think older voters in Florida are going to have a lot of difficulty believing that Palin is equipped to be VP and one heartbeat away from the presidency. Meanwhile, Joe Biden does a lot to reassure older voters who may be anxious about Obama's level of experience.

New Hampshire - it's a conservative state, but it's not really big on religious fundamentalism. Palin's staunch religious views may be enough to make NH safe for Obama.

And if Obama wins Florida, he's probably going to win in an electoral landslide.

by ProfessorReo on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:03:35 PM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (none / 0)

You kids get off my lawn!

Awesome!!

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 10:43:02 PM EST

I. Am. OZ!!! (none / 0)

This could be the spin he needs! Hey, go big or stay home...

Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics

by chrisblask on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:03:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I. Am. OZ!!! (none / 0)

Hey, go big or stay home...

My whole euchre philosophy.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:10:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh. My. God. (none / 0)

A euchre fan.

You just outed yourself as an Ohioan, Ontarian or (surprisingly) an Aussie or New Zealander.

I'm guessing Ohio...

:~)

Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics

by chrisblask on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:34:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh. My. God. (2.00 / 1)

Born and raised BUCKEYE transplanted to Arizona.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 03:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh. My. God. (none / 0)

Oh yes, I am that good... :~)

BTW, Colbert McCain GreenScreen Challenge #2.

Download the edit fodder here and have fun...

!~)

Motley Moose: Progress Through Politics

by chrisblask on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 11:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain before he was a POW... (none / 0)

by Dumbo on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 01:10:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (2.00 / 2)

Can someone explain the "<redacted>" thing without being snarky about it?

By the way, great diary!

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:00:36 PM EST

Yeah..what the heck is Redacted? (none / 0)

by louisprandtl on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 04:03:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama must make a play for Florida (none / 0)

With Palin pastor-gate, there is a slight opening. WIth Clinton campaigning for him, there is a good possibility that he can win it.

BTW, I think with Palin, he can forget Montana, Nevada, North Carolina and North Dakota. Those states are not going in his column. To be more precise I rank his chances in ``battleground'' states in these order-

1. Colorado

New Hampshire
Virginia
Florida
Ohio

If he is not getting two of those states; he is not going to get
Montana, Nevada, North Carolina and North Dakota.

by ann0nymous on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:01:32 PM EST

Re: Obama must make a play for Florida (none / 0)

If that file that Mr. Palin's ex business partner failed to get sealed today contains the info that I hope it does, they may have no chance at Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota.

If the investigation being conducted in the Alaska State Senate (composed of democrats and republicans who hate Palin) right now goes the way that it could, they may not have a shot at a damn thing.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama must make a play for Florida (2.00 / 0)

I'd put it the other way around.

by Jordache on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:01:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama must make a play for Florida (none / 0)

Word out of Ak tonight is that the AK repugs are moving to shut the investigation down completely. Don't count on an October surprise

Late Night Pundit

by dham340 on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:47:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama must make a play for Florida (none / 0)

Maybe don't count on that perticular October surprise. This lady needs a walk-in closet the size of my house for her skeletons. Just wait.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 03:33:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama must make a play for Florida (2.00 / 1)

Montana, Nevada, North Carolina and North Dakota - why would those states be out of reach? Except for North Carolina, the other three states are not part of bible belt country, and might be turned off by Palin's religious fundamentalism. Those states are not for the fusion of church and state.

Nevada is still in play. I don't see why Palin will make Nevada un-winnable.

As for North Carolina, let's wait and see the first post-Palin poll. I agree that you might see some movement towards McCain, but nothing that would take the state out of play entirely.

by ProfessorReo on Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 11:26:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama must make a play for Florida (none / 0)

I was never counting on Montana, South Dakota, or North Carolina. John Edwards couldn't carry North Carolina, after all. If those go for Obama it's already a landslide.

Nevada is in play. Nevada is dominated by Las Vegas; Palin isn't particularly strong with that demographic. In addition, the Evangelical vote may well trade off with lost moderate votes and Hispanic votes.

I don't see any reason for Nevada to flip.

My ranking:

New Hampshire
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Nevada
Colorado (lots of Evangelicals make this a hard sell)

The first two lean clearly Obama. Ohio is a weak Obama lean; the more the economy becomes the issue the stronger it goes Obama. I think Florida's moved fully into tossup land. Nevada is a toss-up. Colorado has moved slightly towards McCain/Palin (but only slightly) from where it was last week.

The only swing state that Palin has clearly moved is Alaska. And as another commenter pointed it, it's based on Palin's popularity there, which is dropping rapidly and could plummet if any of three or four different things happen.

No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!

by Texas Gray Wolf on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:11:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (none / 0)

Yeah, but what about John Bush? Don't count him out...

Toot, thank you for raising such a terrific person...You done good and we will have you in our hearts.

by hootie4170 on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:39:19 AM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (none / 0)

Sorry to throw cold water but...

Look where they are spending their time right now: PA, MI, OH. Both Obama and McCain and concentrating on those states. McCain is also spending time in WI, but I think that is a lost cause for him.

PA is not in the bag. If McCain can put PA in play, he's going to have a very very good shot at winning. Obama is up in PA, but both he and Biden have been there multiple days since the convention so my guess is the Obama internals are showing that it is not in the bag yet. Their strategy is probably to try and lock it up over the next 2 weeks so they can turn to MI, OH.

CO may be a lost cause at this point too. Palin is going to ensure that the Colorado Springs jesus freaks show up. Obama is going to need massive turn out in Denver and Boulder to overcome that.

NH is going to go Obama. I think he's got a decent shot at turning VA (I put it at 55% chance to take VA).

I need to see a poll from Florida before I count it out completely, but I do not have high hopes and, I suspect neither does the Obama campaign. Yes, they are sending Hillary and Biden to see if they can soften it up before sending Obama but, if Obama is not in Florida in the next 2 weeks you can assume they are going to put up only a token fight.

NC is interesting. Again, I suspect Obama will put up token spending there just to see what will happen.

There was some talk about georgia, I think thats over. Word is Obama has pulled his ads there.

I think they will get NV. The unions will help there.

So, unless and until Palin or McCain make a major gaffe, Obama has to

1. Hold PA

Spend a lot of time in OH (and we may get 3 weeks out from the election before the Obama campaign makes the call on OH - worth it or not).
Win NH, WI, NV, VA
See whats up with CO in the next couple of weeks to see if it is worth the time & $$.

Until this week I thought Obama would win this election with around 340 EVs. Now, if 270 should be doable but he will be lucky to get close to 300.

Late Night Pundit

by dham340 on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:44:59 AM EST

Re: John McCain's Path to Victory (none / 0)

I agree with you that the current strategy is to shore up states, and there might be some internals that give them slight pause; however, it does not mean that PA is in any serious danger. Pennsylvania is probably a fool's gamble on McCain's part. It's one of the states (with NJ & NV & others) which have seen a significant increase in Democratic registration. It's a state where we picked up many of our new seats in '06 (not to mention the senate seat). There were many studies implying the huge exurbs of Philly have been shifting to our side. Perhaps I'm wrong, but it seems like Penn has moved to the level of NJ...one of those time-sucker states that just isn't worth it for McCain.

by thurst on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 09:03:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I just want to know..... (none / 0)

When do you think the next round of "Who will McCain pick for Veep?" diaries begin?

For Real. I don't think Palin makes it far into October.....

"But not me personally were those cheers for"

by QTG on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 11:32:01 AM EST

Re: I just want to know..... (2.00 / 1)

Nope. They're committed now.

If they play Indian-giver with the VP spot, they'll lose the Evangelicals who suddenly got excited that Palin was selected. Without the social conservatives and religious right, McCain cannot win this election. As has been pointed out in other diaries, undecideds are rapidly collapsing, and we're now in a battle of turn-out, not of swing voters.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 11:49:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just want to know..... (none / 0)

Maybe so, but Veep diaries were fun and I miss them.

"But not me personally were those cheers for"

by QTG on Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 03:25:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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